The problem

The pandemic broke transit's ridership model. Riders left for reasons agencies did not fully understand, and the old forecasts could not say who would come back, or why. The Federal Transit Administration funded a national research program to answer the question properly.

What was built

Four phases of work, sponsored and led from the SFMTA: the Future Forces report, a set of rider personas, a marketing campaign, and a ridership data model. Together they describe why riders left and what brings them back.

Source: SFMTA, National Transit Adaptation Strategy

How it was done

Understand why riders left, and what brings them back. The four phases were built to answer that question in order.

1. Future forces

   Map the forces reshaping travel before prescribing anything.

2. Personas

   Build rider personas from research, so the strategy argues about real people.

3. Campaign

   Test the message that speaks to why riders left.

4. Model

   Build the ridership data model that lets agencies plan on evidence.

Documents and artifacts

• Phase II, Personas, FinalPDF · 41 pages · 2.3 MB
• Phase III, Marketing Campaign, FinalPDF · 34 pages · 3.0 MB
• Phase IV, Ridership Model, FinalPDF · 56 pages · 2.7 MB
• SFMTA, National Transit Adaptation StrategyWeb page

Credits

• OrganizationSan Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency
• FunderFederal Transit Administration
• His roleExecutive sponsor